I want you to think back a little to the 2nd year arc. It was decided that either Ryuuen or Sakayanagi would definitely be expelled.
In this post, we'll consider possible scenarios for the special final exam of the 2nd year arc. It's my first analysis, so I'd appreciate it if you could look at it kindly.
Case 1: Ryuuen’s Expulsion
So, let's think about Ryuuen's expulsion. There are several reasons why it's believed Ryuuen will be expelled. First, in the 2nd year arc, Volume 11, during the trump game, Shina drew the joker. This analysis stems from Hoshinomiya comparing Ayanokoji to the joker during the school trip. If Ayanokoji is the joker, and Shina drew the joker, it implies Ayanokoji will transfer to Shina's class, meaning Ryuuen would be expelled. However, I think differently. The trump game with Morishita was not Daifugo (Rich Man, Poor Man) but Old Maid, where the joker is a hindrance. I believe Morishita's hindrance refers to Hashimoto. Therefore, the joker in this scene is Hashimoto, who moved from Morishita to Shina. If we consider the trump game as foreshadowing, it's more likely that Hashimoto will transfer to Shina's class.
As a result, if Ryuuen's expulsion is believed due to the joker analogy, it means Hashimoto would be expelled if we see the joker as Hashimoto. Another reason for Ryuuen’s possible expulsion is that Sakayanagi has recently shown growth. In the 2nd year arc, Volume 11, during the exchange meeting, Sakayanagi admitted her mistakes and grew as a person. Therefore, it is believed she will not be expelled. Additionally, Sakayanagi has promises with Kamuro, so it’s unlikely she will be expelled at this time, leading to the belief that Ryuuen will be expelled. These are the main reasons why it’s thought Ryuuen might be expelled. If you're a fan of Ryuuen, I recommend preparing yourself.
Case 2: Sakayanagi’s Expulsion
Now, let's think about Sakayanagi’s expulsion. Frankly, I think Sakayanagi is more likely to be expelled. I'll explain why. First, there's Kamuro's promise to definitely expel Hashimoto. Additionally, Sakayanagi grew as a person through her reconciliation with Yamamura in Volume 11, recognizing Kamuro as a friend. Thus, Sakayanagi’s class seems united and ready to fight. However, I believe that precisely because Sakayanagi has grown, his expulsion wouldn't be surprising.
The purpose of the Advanced Nurturing High School is to nurture future leaders, a place to grow people. Initially, Sakayanagi saw people only as pawns. If she left the school as she was, she wouldn’t have grown at all. But through Kamuro’s expulsion and reconciliation with Yamamura, Sakayanagi grew as a person, finding meaning in attending the school. Therefore, if we focus on growth, Sakayanagi no longer needs to stay in the school.
Another reason is Ayanokoji’s words in the first-year arc, Volume 12. (anime Season 3, Episode 13). He said...
“If you get expelled by Ryuuen, that wouldn’t be bad,”
Implying a special meaning. Also, the author gave Ayanokoji and Ryuuen the same birthday, hinting at a special connection. Even if they aren’t twins, the author wants to give special significance to their relationship. Ayanokoji’s wish for a rematch with Ryuuen and his desire for Ryuuen not to drop out further suggest Ryuuen’s special treatment.
Third, Ayanokoji has been interacting more with A-class students, hinting at potential relationships if he transfers to A-class. Finally, from a meta-fiction perspective, if Sakayanagi were expelled, he could still be involved in post-graduation topics related to the White Room. These reasons suggest Sakayanagi’s expulsion is likely. If you support Sakayanagi, prepare yourself well.
Expulsion Numbers and Victory Considerations
Let's consider how many students might be expelled in this special final exam. The author hinted in the afterword of the 2nd year arc, Volume 11, that the Mountain Ridge arc would be harsh. While it doesn’t directly mention expulsion numbers, we can infer potential numbers. Recall Ayanokoji’s conversation with Horikita in Volume 11. Ayanokoji said he wouldn’t be surprised if multiple students were expelled in the next special exam. Horikita’s conversation with Manabu on graduation day revealed that 24 students were expelled by graduation, with 13 in the third year and 17 by the second year. Considering these numbers, it’s possible 9 more students will be expelled in the 2nd year arc. This fits Ayanokoji’s prediction of multiple expulsions.
Assuming 2-3 students per class will be expelled, we can then predict the outcome of the special final exam. I believe Ryuuen will win against Sakayanagi. As for Horikita’s class versus Ichinose’s class, I predict Ichinose’s class will win. This prediction is based on the need for class points, with points likely fluctuating significantly. Winning classes could gain 100-200 points, while losing classes could lose about 100 points. Considering these fluctuations, Ichinose’s class winning would balance the points, aligning with Ayanokoji’s desire for even class points.
From a meta-fiction perspective, Ichinose’s class winning would make sense.
Shina Hiyori’s Expulsion
Many believe Shina Hiyori might be expelled due to her promise to graduate with Ayanokoji. Hashimoto’s comment about Ayanokoji’s special gaze towards Hiyori and the possible awareness of his feelings suggest Hiyori’s expulsion might trigger Ayanokoji’s emotional realization. However, I believe Hiyori has a chance of avoiding expulsion. Ryuuen might protect her if he values her more than others in his class. Additionally, remember the unanimous agreement special exam? Horikita’s class chose to give Horikita a protection point, but it’s unclear what other classes did. If Ryuuen’s class also chose to protect Hiyori, she might have a protection point, increasing her chances of staying. Therefore, I believe Hiyori might not be expelled.
Fans of Hiyori should also be prepared in case she is expelled.
Further Analysis
Other considerations include possible alliances between Sakayanagi and Shina to expel Ryuuen, Ayanokoji’s potential expulsion, and the expulsion of other characters like Sudo or Ibuki. Each possibility offers different impacts on the story and character development. Ultimately, the author can decide any outcome, so fans should be prepared for any character’s expulsion.
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